Is a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Inevitable? The Future of Cross-Strait Relations and Washington’s Commitments to Taipei

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, observers anxiously watched China’s reactions as many feared a similar conflict would break out in the Taiwan Strait. In recent years, it appears China has been increasingly determined to enforce its One-China policy, first against Hong Kong and now against Taiwan. From afar, the United States is caught between deterring China from an all-out military conflict and supporting a democratic Taiwan. A few months ago, President Joe Biden broke away from America’s traditionally ambiguous stance and said the US would defend Taiwan if China attacks. However, the Institute for Global Affairs’ annual survey found that the number of Americans who support US intervention to help Taiwan is waning.

So, how likely is it that a conflict between China and Taiwan breaks out? Is it possible for the US to navigate conflicting interests without resorting to involving itself in another war? In this episode, IGA senior fellow Mark Hannah sits down with Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund to discuss the state of US-China relations and the future of Taiwan.

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This podcast episode includes references to the Eurasia Group Foundation, now known as the Institute for Global Affairs.